What changed, why it matters, and what most people may be overlooking.
Goldman Sachs joined the tightening camp and markets price an 87% chance of a quarter-point increase as oil above $100 and hotter producer prices revive inflation risk.
August CPI accelerated, real wages fell again and markets priced an 87% chance of a quarter-point hike; the near-5% Treasury yield is tightening conditions before the Fed votes.
Activity improved and hiring reached a 15-month high, yet new-business growth remained unusually soft—a contradiction that could decide whether the rebound lasts.