What changed, why it matters, and what most people may be overlooking.
Neel Kashkari backed the latest quarter-point rate increase and argued that core pressure remains excessive, keeping another hike alive even if energy shocks fade.
The Federal Reserve lifted its target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more increase; markets now face an inflation fight extending well beyond one meeting.
Seven straight declines erased about 1.5% despite near-daily intervention; the next move depends on whether 96 becomes a new trading range or only a defended psychological level.
The benchmark yield returned to a level last seen in 2023 as oil, inflation, debt supply and Fed expectations collided; the key consequence is a higher hurdle rate for almost every risk asset.
Goldman Sachs joined the tightening camp and markets price an 87% chance of a quarter-point increase as oil above $100 and hotter producer prices revive inflation risk.
August CPI accelerated, real wages fell again and markets priced an 87% chance of a quarter-point hike; the near-5% Treasury yield is tightening conditions before the Fed votes.
US spot Bitcoin funds posted their best daily inflow since January, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, before strong payrolls revived Fed-hike expectations and cooled Friday’s risk appetite.
August payrolls nearly tripled the consensus estimate, pushing two-year yields to 4.37% and lifting the implied probability of a September rate increase to roughly 62% before inflation data.